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ATLAS
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All Games
Best Value
Early Slate
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PLAYER PROPS
Top 20 ranked by Matchup Score + edge signal
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HOW MLB SIM WORKS

MLB SIM uses the Pitcher DNA system to classify every pitcher into one of 17 archetypes based on their pitch mix, velocity, movement, and approach. Every batter has historical performance data against each archetype — because baseball is fundamentally a 1v1 sport, the specific pitcher a batter faces defines their expected performance.

When lineups are released, MLB SIM projects every batter's performance based on how they've historically hit against the opposing pitcher's archetype. This produces per-game Matchup Scores that change daily depending on the starter.

MATCHUP SCORE (MS) — 40 TO 99

MS is a context-dependent metric that changes each game based on the specific pitcher archetype a batter faces. A batter can be a 92 against a fastball-heavy pitcher but a 48 against a curveball specialist.

85-99Elite Matchup — historically dominant vs this archetype
70-84Favorable — above-average performance expected
55-69Neutral — roughly league-average
40-54Tough Matchup — historically struggles vs this archetype
MS FORMULA (wOBA-based): wOBA >= .400 → MS 90-99 wOBA .370-.399 → MS 80-89 wOBA .340-.369 → MS 70-79 wOBA .310-.339 → MS 60-69 wOBA .270-.309 → MS 50-59 wOBA < .270 → MS 40-49 H2H BONUS: +0-5 pts when PA >= 10 vs specific pitcher (not just archetype)

PITCHER DNA — 17 ARCHETYPES

PROJECTION METHODOLOGY

Team runs are projected using the BaseRuns formula, a context-neutral run estimator:

A = H + BB - HR B = 1.02 × (1.4×TB - 0.6×H + 0.1×BB) C = PA - H - BB D = HR Runs = A×B / (B+C) + D Spread = Home Runs − Away Runs O/U Total = Home Runs + Away Runs

Batter projections use archetype-specific wOBA with head-to-head adjustments when sufficient plate appearance history exists.