BKN @ CLE CLE -13.5 85
PHX @ SAS SAS -6.5 68

FEB 19 SLATE

11 games
Lines from sportsbooks via The Odds API. Projected lines marked (PROJ. SPREAD) / (PROJ O/U) where real data unavailable.
IND DS #26 15-40
IND -2.5
O/U 235.5
SIM PICK O 235.5
23 F
WAS DS #27 14-39
IND DS 290 WAS DS 285
PnR-Heavy (Fast)
Trans-Defense (Poor)
vs
PnR-Heavy (Fast)
Switch-Everything (Poor)
ATL DS #20 26-30
PHI -4.0
O/U 236.0
SIM PICK PHI -4.0
43 D
PHI DS #12 30-24
ATL DS 331 PHI DS 349
Run-and-Gun (Fast)
Rim-Protect (Avg)
vs
ISO-Heavy (Mid)
Switch-Everything (Avg)
BKN DS #29 15-38
CLE -13.5
O/U 228.0
SIM PICK CLE -13.5
100 A
CLE DS #3 34-21
BKN DS 256 CLE DS 372
Spot-Up Heavy (Mid)
Drop-Coverage (Poor)
vs
PnR-Heavy (Fast)
Drop-Coverage (Good)
HOU DS #7 33-20
HOU -2.5
O/U 214.5
SIM PICK U 214.5
35 D
CHA DS #18 26-29
HOU DS 356 CHA DS 330
ISO-Heavy (Mid)
Drop-Coverage (Good)
vs
PnR-Heavy (Mid)
Switch-Everything (Avg)
DET DS #10 39-13
NYK -3.5
O/U 222.0
SIM PICK U 222.0
20 F
NYK DS #5 34-20
DET DS 345 NYK DS 364
Post-Oriented (Mid)
Rim-Protect (Elite)
vs
Spot-Up Heavy (Mid)
Switch-Everything (Good)
TOR DS #14 32-23
TOR -5.0
O/U 231.0
SIM PICK TOR -5.0
42 D
CHI DS #24 24-31
TOR DS 336 CHI DS 286
Run-and-Gun (Mid)
Trans-Defense (Good)
vs
Run-and-Gun (Fast)
Trans-Defense (Poor)
PHX DS #19 32-23
SAS -6.5
O/U 225.5
SIM PICK SAS -6.5
65 B
SAS DS #6 37-16
PHX DS 321 SAS DS 354
PnR-Heavy (Mid)
Trans-Defense (Good)
vs
Spot-Up Heavy (Mid)
Trans-Defense (Elite)
BOS DS #9 35-19
BOS -3.5
O/U 223.5
SIM PICK BOS -3.5
43 D
GSW DS #11 29-26
BOS DS 352 GSW DS 319
PnR-Heavy (Slow)
Trans-Defense (Good)
vs
Spot-Up Heavy (Fast)
Blitz (Good)
ORL DS #13 27-23
ORL -11.0
O/U 223.5
SIM PICK ORL -11.0
46 D
SAC DS #28 12-44
ORL DS 326 SAC DS 270
Run-and-Gun (Mid)
Blitz (Avg)
vs
Post-Oriented (Mid)
Trans-Defense (Poor)
DEN DS #2 35-20
DEN -3.5
O/U 226.0
SIM PICK U 226.0
28 F
LAC DS #23 26-28
DEN DS 365 LAC DS 307
Post-Oriented (Mid)
Rim-Protect (Avg)
vs
ISO-Heavy (Mid)
Drop-Coverage (Avg)
IND DS #26 15-40
IND -2.5
O/U 235.5
SIM PICK O 235.5
23 F
WAS DS #27 14-39
IND DS 290 WAS DS 285
PnR-Heavy (Fast)
Trans-Defense (Poor)
vs
PnR-Heavy (Fast)
Switch-Everything (Poor)

PLAYER PROPS

Top 20 ranked by DS + matchup signal
1
N. Jokić DEN vs LAC
🔮 Versatile Big · DS 99
28.5 PROJ OVER PTS
HIGH
Avg 28.7 pts // 70% TS vs 114 DRTG // 📉 TRENDING DOWN (5G)
2622223024 1/5
2
D. Mitchell CLE vs BKN
⚡ Scoring Guard · DS 89
27.2 OVER PTS
HIGH
Avg 29.0 pts // 62% TS vs 117 DRTG // 📉 TRENDING DOWN (5G)
3032352914 4/5
3
T. Maxey PHI vs ATL
⚡ Scoring Guard · DS 87
27.8 OVER PTS
HIGH
Avg 28.9 pts // 60% TS vs 114 DRTG
3230292614 3/5
4
K. Leonard LAC vs DEN
🧠 Point Forward · DS 84
28.0 PROJ OVER PTS
HIGH
Avg 27.9 pts // 62% TS vs 116 DRTG // 🔥 HEATING UP (5G)
2724413125 2/5
5
K. Towns NYK vs DET
🏰 Rim Protector · DS 76
19.0 UNDER PTS
HIGH
Avg 19.8 pts // 59% TS vs 108 DRTG // 🔥 HEATING UP (5G)
2122112419 1/5
6
C. Cunningham DET vs NYK
⚡ Scoring Guard · DS 93
8.5 OVER AST
HIGH
Avg 9.6 ast // 35 mpg
977810 2/5
7
J. Embiid PHI vs ATL
🏰 Rim Protector · DS 83
29.2 OVER PTS
HIGH
Avg 26.6 pts // 61% TS vs 114 DRTG // ❄️ COOLING DOWN (5G)
033352440 3/5
8
J. Brown BOS vs GSW
🧠 Point Forward · DS 85
29.5 PROJ OVER PTS
HIGH
Avg 29.3 pts // 57% TS vs 111 DRTG
242629033 1/5
9
J. Brunson NYK vs DET
⚡ Scoring Guard · DS 83
5.5 UNDER AST
HIGH
Avg 6.1 ast vs 108 DRTG // 🔥 HEATING UP (5G)
48849 2/5
10
S. Curry GSW vs BOS
⚡ Scoring Guard · DS 80
27.0 PROJ OVER PTS
HIGH
Avg 27.2 pts // 64% TS vs 111 DRTG
2327263816 2/5
11
J. Murray DEN vs LAC
⚡ Scoring Guard · DS 85
25.5 PROJ OVER PTS
HIGH
Avg 25.7 pts // 62% TS vs 114 DRTG // 🔥 HEATING UP (5G)
2317283932 3/5
12
J. Harden CLE vs BKN
⚡ Scoring Guard · DS 83
20.2 OVER PTS
HIGH
Avg 25.0 pts // 60% TS vs 117 DRTG // ❄️ COOLING DOWN (5G)
1322232516 3/5
13
K. Durant HOU vs CHA
⚡ Small-Ball 4 · DS 82
24.8 OVER PTS
HIGH
Avg 25.8 pts // 63% TS vs 113 DRTG // ❄️ COOLING DOWN (5G)
2126203115 2/5
14
D. Brooks PHX vs SAS
📐 Stretch Forward · DS 62
21.0 PROJ UNDER PTS
HIGH
Avg 21.2 pts // 55% TS vs 110 DRTG // ❄️ COOLING DOWN (5G)
2328241122 1/5
15
V. Wembanyama SAS vs PHX
🏰 Rim Protector · DS 88
11.0 PROJ OVER REB
HIGH
Avg 11.1 reb // 29 mpg // 📈 TRENDING UP (5G)
912111114 4/5
16
D. Booker PHX vs SAS
⚡ Scoring Guard · DS 80
6.5 PROJ UNDER AST
HIGH
Avg 6.3 ast vs 110 DRTG
93444 4/5
17
T. Young WAS vs IND
◆ Unclassified · DS 65
9.0 PROJ OVER AST
HIGH
Avg 8.9 ast // 28 mpg // ❄️ COOLING DOWN (5G)
000106 1/5
18
T. Young WAS vs IND
◆ Unclassified · DS 65
9.0 PROJ OVER AST
HIGH
Avg 8.9 ast // 28 mpg // ❄️ COOLING DOWN (5G)
000106 1/5
19
J. Johnson ATL vs PHI
🧠 Point Forward · DS 84
10.2 OVER REB
HIGH
Avg 10.6 reb // 36 mpg // 🔥 HEATING UP (5G)
139161111 4/5
20
A. Davis WAS vs IND
🏰 Rim Protector · DS 68
11.0 PROJ OVER REB
HIGH
Avg 11.1 reb // 31 mpg // ❄️ COOLING DOWN (5G)
11161283 3/5

PLAYER STAT LINES (PROJ. LINE)

Season averages adjusted for opponent defense + pace
All lines marked (PROJ. LINE) are SIM-projected from season stats adjusted for matchup. Real player props will replace projections when available via sportsbook API.
IND @ WAS
P. Siakam 25.7p 4.0a 6.7r 36.4
A. Nembhard 18.9p 7.7a 3.0r 29.6
I. Zubac 15.6p 2.3a 11.0r 28.9
A. Nesmith 14.8p 2.1a 4.8r 21.7
O. Toppin 15.2p 1.7a 6.7r 23.6
J. Walker 11.4p 2.0a 4.5r 17.9
B. Sheppard 7.1p 1.8a 3.1r 12.0
J. Huff 9.4p 1.3a 3.8r 14.5
A. Davis 21.6p 2.9a 11.1r 35.6
K. George 16.0p 4.9a 5.4r 26.3
A. Sarr 18.2p 2.9a 7.8r 28.9
T. Young 20.5p 9.1a 1.5r 31.1
B. Carrington 10.8p 4.7a 3.5r 19.0
B. Coulibaly 10.4p 2.6a 4.4r 17.4
J. Champagnie 8.3p 1.1a 5.8r 15.2
D. Russell 10.8p 4.1a 2.3r 17.2
ATL @ PHI
J. Johnson 23.9p 8.3a 10.6r 42.8
D. Daniels 11.9p 6.3a 6.5r 24.7
N. Alexander-Walker 20.6p 3.8a 3.6r 28.0
O. Okongwu 16.6p 3.3a 7.7r 27.6
C. McCollum 19.3p 3.7a 3.4r 26.4
Z. Risacher 10.8p 1.3a 3.5r 15.6
J. Kuminga 12.4p 2.5a 5.9r 20.8
J. Landale 11.7p 1.7a 6.4r 19.8
T. Maxey 30.0p 6.9a 4.1r 41.0
K. Oubre Jr. 14.4p 1.6a 4.7r 20.7
J. Embiid 27.6p 4.0a 7.5r 39.1
P. George 16.6p 3.8a 5.1r 25.5
Q. Grimes 13.2p 3.7a 3.8r 20.7
D. Barlow 8.8p 1.2a 5.0r 15.0
A. Drummond 7.2p 0.9a 8.6r 16.7
M. Beauchamp 9.3p 2.5a 3.5r 15.3
BKN @ CLE
M. Porter Jr. 25.2p 3.2a 7.0r 35.4
N. Claxton 12.6p 4.0a 7.1r 23.7
N. Clowney 13.1p 1.8a 4.2r 19.1
T. Mann 7.5p 3.4a 3.2r 14.1
Z. Williams 9.8p 0.8a 2.5r 13.1
D. Sharpe 8.6p 2.3a 6.6r 17.5
J. Minott 5.8p 1.0a 3.5r 10.3
O. Agbaji 4.2p 0.7a 2.3r 7.2
J. Harden 26.0p 8.2a 4.8r 39.0
D. Mitchell 30.2p 5.9a 4.4r 40.5
E. Mobley 18.6p 4.0a 8.6r 31.2
J. Tyson 14.5p 2.3a 5.3r 22.1
J. Allen 15.2p 2.0a 8.1r 25.3
D. Schröder 12.8p 5.1a 2.9r 20.8
S. Merrill 14.1p 2.3a 2.3r 18.7
D. Wade 6.0p 1.6a 4.0r 11.6
HOU @ CHA
A. Thompson 17.5p 5.3a 7.3r 30.1
K. Durant 25.7p 4.3a 5.1r 35.1
J. Smith Jr. 15.1p 1.8a 6.8r 23.7
A. Sengun 20.6p 6.2a 9.1r 35.9
T. Eason 12.1p 1.5a 5.9r 19.5
R. Sheppard 12.6p 3.0a 2.5r 18.1
S. Adams 5.8p 1.5a 8.3r 15.6
J. Okogie 5.2p 0.9a 2.7r 8.8
M. Bridges 17.9p 3.4a 5.9r 27.2
B. Miller 20.3p 3.2a 4.5r 28.0
C. White 18.3p 4.6a 3.6r 26.5
L. Ball 19.0p 7.3a 4.6r 30.9
M. Diabaté 8.1p 1.6a 8.3r 18.0
G. Williams 6.3p 1.6a 3.9r 11.8
J. Green 4.5p 1.0a 1.8r 7.3
T. Mann 7.0p 2.1a 2.2r 11.3
DET @ NYK
C. Cunningham 25.4p 9.6a 5.5r 40.5
D. Robinson 12.3p 1.9a 2.6r 16.8
T. Harris 13.4p 2.3a 4.8r 20.5
J. Duren 17.8p 1.8a 10.2r 29.8
A. Thompson 10.2p 2.7a 5.9r 18.8
I. Stewart 10.0p 1.1a 5.0r 16.1
K. Huerter 10.3p 2.5a 3.6r 16.4
R. Holland II 8.1p 1.4a 4.2r 13.7
J. Brunson 26.0p 6.1a 3.2r 35.3
M. Bridges 15.3p 4.1a 4.1r 23.5
O. Anunoby 16.0p 2.4a 5.4r 23.8
K. Towns 19.1p 2.9a 11.7r 33.7
J. Hart 11.7p 5.2a 7.4r 24.3
M. McBride 12.4p 2.8a 2.5r 17.7
L. Shamet 9.2p 1.5a 1.9r 12.6
J. Alvarado 8.0p 3.2a 2.6r 13.8
TOR @ CHI
S. Barnes 20.5p 5.7a 8.4r 34.6
B. Ingram 23.2p 3.8a 5.7r 32.7
I. Quickley 18.1p 6.2a 4.4r 28.7
R. Barrett 19.7p 3.7a 5.2r 28.6
J. Poeltl 10.3p 2.0a 7.6r 19.9
S. Mamukelashvili 12.1p 1.9a 5.1r 19.1
J. Shead 7.2p 5.5a 1.9r 14.6
J. Walter 6.6p 1.0a 2.2r 9.8
J. Giddey 18.7p 8.9a 8.6r 36.2
M. Buzelis 15.3p 2.1a 5.4r 22.8
T. Jones 12.4p 5.9a 3.0r 21.3
I. Okoro 8.9p 1.5a 2.7r 13.1
A. Simons 14.5p 2.5a 2.5r 19.5
C. Sexton 14.5p 3.7a 2.0r 20.2
J. Smith 10.2p 1.3a 6.9r 18.4
P. Williams 6.9p 1.3a 2.9r 11.1
PHX @ SAS
D. Booker 24.8p 6.3a 3.9r 35.0
D. Brooks 20.8p 1.8a 3.6r 26.2
G. Allen 16.7p 4.0a 3.0r 23.7
R. O'Neale 10.1p 2.9a 4.7r 17.7
C. Gillespie 13.1p 4.7a 4.1r 21.9
M. Williams 11.9p 1.1a 8.0r 21.0
J. Goodwin 8.7p 2.3a 4.6r 15.6
O. Ighodaro 5.4p 1.8a 4.4r 11.6
D. Fox 19.5p 6.3a 3.7r 29.5
D. Vassell 14.1p 2.3a 3.8r 20.2
S. Castle 16.5p 7.0a 4.9r 28.4
V. Wembanyama 24.5p 2.8a 10.9r 38.2
J. Champagnie 11.1p 1.4a 5.8r 18.3
H. Barnes 10.6p 2.1a 3.0r 15.7
K. Johnson 13.5p 1.4a 5.8r 20.7
L. Kornet 7.3p 2.0a 6.6r 15.9
BOS @ GSW
J. Brown 28.8p 4.6a 6.7r 40.1
D. White 16.9p 5.5a 4.3r 26.7
P. Pritchard 16.9p 5.2a 4.1r 26.2
N. Vučević 16.4p 3.7a 8.7r 28.8
N. Queta 9.5p 1.5a 8.0r 19.0
S. Hauser 8.9p 1.4a 3.7r 14.0
J. Walsh 5.5p 0.9a 4.2r 10.6
L. Garza 7.7p 1.0a 4.1r 12.8
S. Curry 26.7p 4.7a 3.4r 34.8
J. Butler III 19.6p 4.8a 5.4r 29.8
B. Podziemski 11.8p 3.5a 4.5r 19.8
D. Green 8.4p 5.1a 5.5r 19.0
M. Moody 11.3p 1.5a 3.2r 16.0
K. Porziņģis 16.8p 2.7a 4.9r 24.4
D. Melton 11.5p 2.4a 2.7r 16.6
A. Horford 7.5p 2.3a 4.7r 14.5
ORL @ SAC
P. Banchero 22.6p 4.8a 8.3r 35.7
D. Bane 20.8p 4.2a 4.1r 29.1
F. Wagner 22.6p 3.6a 5.7r 31.9
A. Black 17.1p 4.0a 3.9r 25.0
W. Carter Jr. 12.3p 2.1a 7.3r 21.7
J. Suggs 15.0p 5.5a 3.9r 24.4
T. da Silva 9.1p 1.2a 3.3r 13.6
G. Bitadze 6.3p 1.2a 4.9r 12.4
K. Murray 14.9p 1.5a 6.0r 22.4
D. DeRozan 19.0p 3.8a 3.2r 26.0
Z. LaVine 19.5p 2.3a 2.8r 24.6
D. Sabonis 16.1p 4.1a 11.2r 31.4
R. Westbrook 15.6p 6.6a 5.6r 27.8
D. Hunter 13.9p 2.0a 4.0r 19.9
D. Plowden 6.1p 1.6a 3.3r 11.0
M. Monk 12.6p 2.6a 2.0r 17.2
DEN @ LAC
J. Murray 25.7p 7.5a 4.2r 37.4
N. Jokić 28.7p 10.5a 11.8r 51.0
P. Watson 14.9p 2.0a 4.7r 21.6
C. Johnson 11.5p 2.2a 3.5r 17.2
C. Braun 9.9p 2.7a 4.1r 16.7
A. Gordon 17.7p 2.5a 6.0r 26.2
T. Hardaway Jr. 14.1p 1.3a 2.5r 17.9
B. Brown 7.5p 2.1a 3.8r 13.4
K. Leonard 28.3p 3.6a 6.2r 38.1
B. Mathurin 17.7p 2.3a 5.2r 25.2
D. Garland 18.3p 6.8a 2.3r 27.4
J. Collins 14.0p 0.9a 4.9r 19.8
K. Dunn 8.1p 3.3a 2.8r 14.2
D. Jones Jr. 10.2p 1.2a 2.4r 13.8
B. Bogdanović 7.7p 2.6a 2.7r 13.0
B. Beal 8.3p 1.7a 0.8r 10.8
IND @ WAS
P. Siakam 25.7p 4.0a 6.7r 36.4
A. Nembhard 18.9p 7.7a 3.0r 29.6
I. Zubac 15.6p 2.3a 11.0r 28.9
A. Nesmith 14.8p 2.1a 4.8r 21.7
O. Toppin 15.2p 1.7a 6.7r 23.6
J. Walker 11.4p 2.0a 4.5r 17.9
B. Sheppard 7.1p 1.8a 3.1r 12.0
J. Huff 9.4p 1.3a 3.8r 14.5
A. Davis 21.6p 2.9a 11.1r 35.6
K. George 16.0p 4.9a 5.4r 26.3
A. Sarr 18.2p 2.9a 7.8r 28.9
T. Young 20.5p 9.1a 1.5r 31.1
B. Carrington 10.8p 4.7a 3.5r 19.0
B. Coulibaly 10.4p 2.6a 4.4r 17.4
J. Champagnie 8.3p 1.1a 5.8r 15.2
D. Russell 10.8p 4.1a 2.3r 17.2

HOW NBA SIM WORKS

NBA SIM is a data-driven prediction system that analyzes coaching schemes, player archetypes, and lineup synergy to predict game spreads and over/unders. All data sourced from 2025-26 NBA season statistics via the official NBA API.

DYNAMIC SCORE (DS) — 40 TO 99

Every player gets a Dynamic Score from 40-99 based on a weighted formula combining production, efficiency, and impact metrics. The formula weights:

Points× 1.2
Assists× 1.8
Rebounds× 0.8
Steals× 2.0
Blocks× 1.5
True Shooting %× 40
Net Rating× 0.8
Usage %× 15
Minutes/Game× 0.3
85-99Elite / All-Star caliber
70-84Above Average / Strong Starter
55-69Rotation Player
40-54Below Average / Limited Role

Dynamic Range shows the expected floor-to-ceiling for each player based on their score volatility. Elite players (DS 85+) have tighter ranges, while mid-tier players have wider variance.

Team DS Ranking (1-30) is the minutes-weighted average Dynamic Score across each team's top 10 rotation players. Each player's DS is weighted by their minutes per game, so high-minute stars influence the team rank more than bench players. This gives a roster-strength ranking that accounts for how much each player actually plays.

PLAYER ARCHETYPES

Players are clustered into archetypes using K-Means on 16 statistical features per position group. The optimal number of clusters (K) per position is chosen by silhouette score, with a minimum of 3 archetypes per position. Features include per-36 rates, efficiency metrics, and impact stats — weighted differently per position (e.g., assists weighted 1.5x for PGs, blocks 1.5x for centers).

🔒
3-and-D Wing
Defensive wing who spaces the floor. Combines perimeter lockdown with corner threes.
💨
Athletic Wing
Versatile, athletic wing. Contributes across the board with energy and athleticism.
🔄
Combo Guard
Versatile guard who can both score and distribute. Balanced statistical profile.
🛡️
Defensive Specialist
Defensive-first guard. Low usage but elite on-ball pressure and deflections.
🧠
Floor General
Pass-first point guard. Orchestrates the offense with high assist rates and low turnovers.
🎯
Playmaking Guard
Shot-creating guard with strong passing vision. Combines scoring with facilitation.
🧠
Point Forward
Forward with guard-like passing. Initiates offense from the post or perimeter.
🏰
Rim Protector
Elite shot-blocker. Anchors the defense with rim protection and rebounding.
Scoring Guard
High-usage backcourt scorer. Attacks off the dribble and in pick-and-roll. Elite shot creation.
🎯
Sharpshooter
Elite 3-point specialist. Spaces the floor and punishes closeouts. High 3PA rate.
⚔️
Slasher
Rim-attacking wing. Gets to the basket with speed and athleticism. High FTA rate.
Small-Ball 4
Undersized but versatile 4. Plays with speed and skill rather than size.
📐
Stretch 5
Modern center who can shoot from distance. Provides spacing from the 5 position.
📐
Stretch Big
Shooting big man. Provides floor spacing from the 4/5 with reliable outside shooting.
📐
Stretch Forward
Floor-spacing forward. Pulls opposing bigs to the perimeter with consistent shooting.
🏋️
Traditional Center
Classic big man. Rebounds, protects the rim, and finishes inside.
🏋️
Traditional PF
Physical power forward. Operates in the post and mid-range. Strong rebounder.
🦾
Two-Way Forward
Two-way forward contributing on both ends. Solid defender with offensive versatility.
🦾
Two-Way Wing
Elite two-way player at the wing. Impacts both ends with scoring and perimeter defense.
🔮
Versatile Big
Multi-skilled center. Can pass, shoot, and defend at an above-average level.

COACHING SCHEMES

Each team's offensive and defensive schemes are classified from play type distributions, pace, and shooting profiles using percentile-rank comparison.

Offensive Schemes

PnR-Heavy — Pick-and-roll dominant offense, high screen usage
ISO-Heavy — Isolation-focused, high individual creation
Motion — Ball movement offense, high assist rate, low ISO
Run-and-Gun — Transition-heavy, fast pace, high possession count
Spot-Up Heavy — Emphasis on catch-and-shoot, 3-point heavy
Post-Oriented — Interior-focused with post-up plays

Defensive Schemes

Switch-Everything — Versatile switching on all screens
Drop-Coverage — Big drops back on screens, protects paint
Rim-Protect — Paint-first defense, elite rim protection
Trans-Defense — Transition defense priority, stops fast breaks
Blitz — Aggressive trapping on ball screens

SPREAD & TOTAL METHODOLOGY

Real lines are pulled from sportsbooks via The Odds API when available. When no sportsbook lines exist (e.g. pre-release, All-Star break), the SIM generates projected lines marked as (PROJ. SPREAD) and (PROJ O/U).

Projected spreads use team net rating differentials + a 3-point home court advantage. Projected totals use offensive/defensive rating matchups × pace. All rounded to nearest 0.5.

Proj. Spread= -(Home Net Rtg − Away Net Rtg + 3.0 HCA)
Proj. Total= ((ORtg+DRtg)/2 × MatchupPace/100) × 2

Player props marked (PROJ. LINE) are season averages adjusted for opponent defense and pace. Real player props replace projections when released by sportsbooks.

LINEUP COMBINATION ANALYSIS

We track 2-man, 3-man, 4-man, and 5-man lineup combinations across the entire season. Each combo is evaluated by net rating, minutes played, and games played together. Minimum thresholds ensure statistical reliability:

5-Man Lineups30+ possessions minimum
4-Man Lineups50+ possessions minimum
3-Man Lineups75+ possessions minimum
2-Man Lineups100+ possessions minimum

Hot Combos show lineups with the best net ratings this season — these units are outscoring opponents significantly when they share the floor. Fade Combos are the worst-performing groups — teams bleed points when these players are together.

Trend badges (🔥 HEATING UP, ⚡ ELITE FLOOR, 💀 DISASTERCLASS, etc.) use game count and net rating thresholds to flag the most notable lineup trends across the league.

PROP SCORING

Player props are scored on a normalized 0-100 scale per prop type (PTS, AST, REB, PRA, STL+BLK). Each prop is adjusted by opponent defensive rating, pace matchup, and player efficiency (TS%). OVER props trigger for favorable matchups; UNDER props trigger when facing elite defense or when a player has poor efficiency (TS% below 53%).